First Access Homes

The Bank of Canada hiked its rate today, from 2.25% to 2.50%. It’s the first rate hike since July 2023.

The Bank’s reason: inflation is higher and lasting longer than it expected in July, and it wants to stop high energy prices spreading into everything else.

Before today it cut nine times, from 5% down to 2.25%. GTA home prices still fell $100,000, from a $990,000 median in June 2024 to $890,000 in June 2026. All types of housing fell.

The last three rate cut cycles saw prices go up.
Two years after the first cut, prices were up 9% after 2007, up 36% after 2015 and up 48% after 2020. This time they’re down 10%.

Part of the answer is the bond market. A 5-year fixed mortgage is priced off the 5-year Government of Canada bond. That bond closed at 3.41% the day the Bank started cutting. Its low was 2.50% in March 2025. Yesterday it closed at 3.57%.

The other part is supply. 26,131 GTA homes were for sale in September. Only three Septembers in the last 22 had more: 2006, 2008 and 2025.

On a fixed rate, nothing changes until you renew. On a variable rate where the payment moves, it’s about $13 a month more for every $100,000 you owe, so $91 on $690,000. If your rate is variable but your payment stays the same, about $144 more of it goes to interest every month on $690,000.

The Bank said there could be more. The next decision is December 9, and I update the odds every trading day.

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City elections are the most important ones you’ll vote in.Your local council decides the things you live with every day.

In Toronto, it’s traffic and housing.
In Mississauga, it’s affordability and crime.
In Oakville and Pickering, it’s development.

And these races are close. In Toronto’s last election, a school board seat was won by one vote.
Polls are open Monday, Oct. 26, 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Bring ID with your name and address.

Some cool GTA finds this week

Italinteriors has a range hood in your island
Estudio Goo has a coffee table that hides the remote
Hammond Int'l Properties has a listing in with an observatory

Follow for more cool finds.

Here are the recovery times from some bottoms:

2008: 1 Year
2017: 3 Years
1989: 13 Years
2022: 4 Years so far….